Is BMI a good way to set a goal weight?

Not on its own. BMI is a height-to-weight ratio, and it cannot tell the difference between fat mass and muscle mass or see where you carry weight, both of which matter more to your actual health risk than the ratio itself. It is a useful population screening tool, not a personalized target.

What should I use instead of BMI to set a goal weight?

A goal range, not a single number, built from where your body holds weight, how your clothes and energy feel at different weights, and health markers like blood pressure or blood sugar if you track them. Waist measurement relative to height adds real information BMI cannot give you, since it reflects fat distribution instead of just a ratio.

How much weight do I actually need to lose to see health benefits?

Often far less than people assume. Five to ten percent of starting body weight is the range clinical guidelines point to for meaningful improvements in blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol, and even smaller amounts have shown measurable benefits in a systematic review of low-level weight loss. A goal weight based on a percentage of where you start is usually more realistic than one based on a chart.

Should I pick my goal weight from what I weighed when I was younger?

Be careful with that number. Bodies change composition with age even at the same weight, and a number from a decade or two ago was not chosen for your health today, it was just where you happened to land. Use where you feel strong and your health markers look good now as the anchor, not a memory.

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How to Set a Goal Weight That Isn't Just a BMI Number

A BMI chart hands everyone the same formula. Here is why that number is the wrong tool for an individual goal, and how to actually set one that fits you.

Heather Bauer, RD · September 6, 2026

Here is the direct answer: do not pick your goal weight off a BMI chart. BMI is a ratio of height to weight, nothing more, and it cannot see the two things that actually determine whether a number is healthy for you: how much of your body is muscle versus fat, and where you carry that fat.

Why a single BMI number is the wrong tool for an individual

BMI was built as a population screening tool, and it is a reasonable one at that scale. It falls apart the moment you apply it to one specific person. A recent clinical review lays out the core problem plainly: BMI cannot distinguish fat mass from fat-free mass, so two people with an identical BMI can have very different amounts of body fat and very different health risk (Sweatt, Garvey & Martins, Current Obesity Reports, 2024). A muscular person and a person carrying the same weight mostly as fat can land on the exact same chart square with nothing else in common. BMI also cannot see fat distribution, and where you carry weight matters for health independent of the total number on the scale.

What to look at instead

Trade the single number for a small set of things you can actually track over time:

Waist measurement relative to height. This captures fat distribution, which BMI cannot, and adds real information a scale number alone does not give you.
How your energy, sleep, and clothes feel at a given weight. These are not soft metrics. They are the day-to-day signal that a number is working for your actual body.
Health markers you already have. Blood pressure, blood sugar, or cholesterol, if you track them with your doctor, tell you far more about whether a change in weight is doing what you want than the scale does by itself.

None of these replace a conversation with your doctor if you have a specific medical reason to hit a target weight. They are the inputs I use to build a goal range instead of handing someone a chart number and calling it done.

How much change actually moves the needle

This is where most people overshoot. Clinical guidelines consistently point to five to ten percent of starting body weight as the range that produces measurable improvements in blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol (Tahrani & Morton, Obesity, 2022). A systematic review looking specifically at smaller amounts of weight loss found that even changes below five percent showed benefits across a majority of the health markers studied (Dhar, Packer, Michalopoulou et al., International Journal of Obesity, 2024). A goal weight built as a percentage of where you start, five to ten percent down, is both more achievable and better supported by evidence than a number pulled from a chart built for populations, not people.

How I actually coach this

I do not hand anyone a single target and walk away. Goal weight is a checkpoint, not a finish line, so I build a range from the inputs above, aim for a five to ten percent change first, and reassess from there instead of chasing a chart number that was never built with one specific body in mind. If the goal keeps moving as you get closer, that is not failure. That is the plan working the way it is supposed to.

The bottom line

A BMI chart gives everyone the same formula and calls it personalized. It is not. Set your goal from a range, not a single number, anchor the first target at five to ten percent of where you start, and let waist measurement, energy, and real health markers do the work a chart square cannot. A coaching system built to track the range that actually fits you will always beat a number copied off a chart.